Mathematical model of forecasting volumes of post-consumer wood production

S.V. Gayda; L.E.  Lesiv

doi:10.36930/42234903

Authors

S.V. Gayda
L.E. Lesiv

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.36930/42234903

Keywords:

post-consumer wood, classification, processing, mathematical model, wood resource, utilization, strategy, ecology, energy.

Abstract

It is substantiated that a potential source of wood raw materials is various wood waste, in particular, post-consumer wood (PCW). A detailed review and thorough analysis was made to determine the principles of PCW classification at the Ukrainian level. The classification of PCW by degree of pollution into four groups is proposed. A method of calculating the used wood has been developed, which makes it possible to calculate its quantity effectively and reliably. A mathematical model for calculating the potential and balance of PCW by origin is proposed. It was established that the weighted average annual percentage of PCW from the trade network ranges from 14-16%, construction - 20-24%, raw materials and woodworking industries - 6-10%, used (old) furniture products - 10-16%, municipal waste - 16-18%, solid waste – 16-22%, other revenues – 6-8%. On the basis of statistical data from 2015 to 2023, approximating power dependences for each total indicator were obtained, which make it possible to forecast the volume of PCW formation in the near future, in particular until 2024. The implementation of the developed mathematical model makes it possible to effectively forecast the distribution of PCW by categories that determine the degree of pollution and, accordingly, the percentage of material processing of PCW. It is estimated that the potential of PCW in Ukraine in 2023 was about 1.783 million tons. It is justified that the improvement of PCW management at all levels should be based on general technical, economic and environmental standards and focus on the following proposals: analysis of PCW management; calculation of the potential of PCW as a secondary raw material and energy source; improvement of databases on technical, economic, environmental and statistical information; implementation of new approaches to PCW management, taking into account already existing schemes. A strategy for the material use of PCW was developed, which is based on the assessment of potential volumes of PCW according to a mathematical model, systematization of PCW by categories, classification by pollution, the concept of utilization of PCW by processing into dimensionally suitable blanks and construction materials, in particular, carpentry plates of various structures with predicted characteristics, which take into account the physical and mechanical properties of this additional wood resource.

References

„Verordnung über Anforderungen an die Entsorgung von Altholz“, 15. August 2002. BGBl. I, Nr. 59 vom 23.8.2002. - S. 3302.

„Verordnung über Anforderungen an die Verwertung und Beseitigung von AltholzV (Altholzverordnung)“, Art. 1a der Verordnung vom 1. März 2003. BGBl. I. - S. 3302-3317.

„Verordnung über Anforderungen an die Verwertung und Beseitigung von Altholz V (Altholzverordnung)“, Art. 2a der Verordnung vom 20. Oktober 2006. BGBl. I Nr. 48, - S. 2298, 2331.

Yu, B., Luo, J., Shi, Y. et al. (2023). Framework for sustainable building design and construction using off-cut wood. npj Mater. Sustain. 1, 2 https://doi.org/10.1038/s44296-023-00002-8

Pitti, A. R., Espinoza, O., and Smith, R. (2020). "The case for urban and reclaimed wood in the circular economy," BioRes. 15(3), 5226-5245.

Bergsagel, D., Heisel, F. (2023). Structural design using reclaimed wood – A case study and proposed design procedure. Journal of Cleaner Production, Volume 420, 25 September 2023. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2023.138316

Bekhta P.A. (1999): Можливості повторного використання вживаної сировини: сучасний стан та перспективи / Mozhlyvosti povtornoho vykorystannya vzhyvanoyi syrovyny: suchasnyy stan ta perspektyvy [Possibilities of reuse of used raw materials: current state and prospects] // Scientific Bulletin UNFU 9(5):34-44.

Brandstätter M. (1994): Rest-und Altholz; Anfall und Vermertung in osterreich. Holzforschung und Holzverwertung, 3:46-48.

COST Action E 31 (Hrsg.). (2004): National summary reports on the European market of recovered wood, 335.

Drossel K., Wittke B. (1996): Stoffliche Verwertung von Altholz- Rücknahme von Spanplat-ten und Altmöbeln für die Spanplattenherstellung, VDI-Verlag.

Gayda S.V. (2016): A investigation of form of stability of variously designed blockboards made of post-consumer wood // ProLigno : Scientific Journal. – Editura Universitatii «TRANSIL-VANIA» din Brasov. 12(1):22-31.

Gayda S.V. (2019). Scientific and technical basis of the use of used wood in woodworking: thesis of the Doctor of Technical Sciences in the specialty 05.23. – Lviv: UNFU. – 465 (in Ukraini-an).

Gayda S.V. (2016): Research on physical and mechanical characteristics of front blockboards made from post-consumer wood [Дослідження фізико-механічних характеристик фасадних сто-лярних плит із ВЖД]. Forestry, Forest, Paper and Woodworking Industry 42: 33-50. doi: https://doi.org/10.36930/42164206

Gayda S.V., Somar G.V., Sokolovskyy I.A. (2022). Хімічна природа забруднювачів як ос-нова класифікації виробів з деревини, що підлягають утилізації / Khimichna pryroda za-brudnyuvachiv yak osnova klasyfikatsiyi vyrobiv z derevyny, shcho pidlyahayutʹ utylizatsiyi [The chemical nature of pollutants as a basis for the classification of wood products to be utilization] . Forestry, Forest, Paper and Woodworking Industry 48:14-27 (in Ukrainian). doi: https://doi.org/10.36930/42214802

Gayda S.V. (2017): Комплексні дослідження зміни пружних властивостей ВЖД ялиці з віком / Kompleksni doslidzhennya zminy pruzhnykh vlastyvostey vzhyvanoyi derevyny yalytsi z vikom [The complex studies on the change of elastic properties of post-consumer fir wood with age]. For-estry, Forest, Paper and Woodworking Industry 43:58-72 (in Ukrainian). doi: https://doi.org/10.36930/42174308

Gayda S.V. (2018): Дослідження та аналіз характеристик щитових конструкцій із ВЖД / Doslidzhennya ta analiz kharakterystyk shchytovykh konstruktsiy iz vzhyvanoyi derevyny [A investi-gation and analysis of characteristics of solid furniture boards made of post-consumer wood]. Forest-ry, Forest, Paper and Woodworking Industry 44:15-25 (in Ukrainian). doi: https://doi.org/10.36930/42184402

Gayda S.V., Kiyko O.A. (2018): Формостійкість як критерій якості столярних плит із ВЖД / Formostiykistʹ yak kryteriy yakosti stolyarnykh plyt iz vzhyvanoyi derevyny [Shape stability as a quality criterion for PCW-made blockboards]. Scientific Works of the Forestry Academy of Sci-ences of Ukraine 17:185-192 (in Ukrainian).

Gayda S.V. (2017): Використання нечітких експертних систем для підтримки прийняття рішень в процесі сортування вживаної деревини / Vykorystannya nechitkykh ekspertnykh system dlya pidtrymky pryynyattya rishenʹ v protsesi sortuvannya vzhyvanoyi derevyny [Using fuzzy expert systems for decision support in the process of post-consumer wood sorting]. Forestry, Forest, Paper and Woodworking Industry 43:5-20 (in Ukrainian). doi: https://doi.org/10.36930/42174301

Gayda S.V. (2018): Mitsnist kombinovanykh stolyarnykh plyt iz vzhyvanoyi derevyny [Strength of combined blockboard made of post-consumer wood (PCW)]. Bulletin of KhNTUA 197:3-9, (in Ukrainian).

Gayda S.V., Salapak L.V., Lesiv L.E. (2021). Vyznachennya efektyvnoho tekhnolohichnoho protsesu vyhotovlennya riznykh opornykh elementiv dlya funktsionalʹnykh ploshchyn. [Determination of an efficient technological process of manufacturing various support elements for functional sur-faces]. Forestry, Forest, Paper and Woodworking Industry 47: 58-72, (in Ukrainian). doi: https://doi.org/10.36930/42214708

Gayda S.V., Ya.M. Bilyy (2016): Дослідження формостійкості клеєних щитів із ВЖД / Doslidzhennya formostiykosti kleyenykh shchytiv iz vzhyvanoyi derevyny [The investigation of the shape stability of glued panels made of post-consumer wood]. Forestry, Forest, Paper and Wood-working Industry 42: 69-79 (in Ukrainian). doi: https://doi.org/10.36930/42164211

Gayda, S.V. (2007): А problem of arboreal raw material is in Europe and Ukraine. Forestry, Forest, Paper and Woodworking Industry 33:55-63 (in Ukrainian).

Gayda, S.V., Kiyko O.A. (2020). Determining the regime parameters for the surface cleaning of post-consumer wood by a needle milling tool. Eastern-European Journal of Enterprise Technolo-gies, 5(1(107)): 89–97. doi: https://doi.org/10.15587/1729-4061.2020.212484

Gayda, S., Kiyko, O. (2020): The investigation of properties of blockboards made of post-consumer wood. Drewno. Prace Naukowe, Doniesienia, Komunikaty = Wood. Research Papers, Re-ports, Announcements, 63(206), 77-102. https://doi.org/10.12841/wood.1644-3985.352.10

Gayda, S., Kiyko, O. (2023): Study of Physical and Mechanical Properties of Post-Consumer Wood of Different Age. Drewno. Prace Naukowe, Doniesienia, Komunikaty = Wood. Research Papers, Reports, Announcements, 66(212), doi: https://doi.org/10.53502/wood-177453

Gayda, S.V., Kiyko O.A., Guz M.M. (2022): Research of the structure of stump and root-wood for effective use in the production of wood products. Folia Forestalia Polonica, Series A – For-estry, 64 (3):131–142, doi: https://doi.org/10.2478/ffp-2022-0011

Gayda, S.V., Maksymiv, V.M. (2007): Analysis, features, problems and experience of the use of additional resources of raw material – wastes and of used wood. Forestry, Forest, Paper and Woodworking Industry 33:63-73 [in Ukrainian].

Gayda S.V. (2015): Modeling properties of blockboards made of post-consumer wood on the basis of the finite element method. Forestry, Forest, Paper and Woodworking Industry 41:39-49. doi: https://doi.org/10.36930/42154106

Gayda S.V. (2013): Технології та рекомендації до використання вживаної деревини в де-ревообробленні / Tekhnologії ta rekomendatsії do vikoristannya vzhivanoї derevini v derevoobro-blennі [Technologies and recommendations on the utilization of post-consumer wood in woodwork-ing industry]. Forestry, Forest, Paper and Woodworking Industry 39(1):48-67 (in Ukrainian).

Gayda S.V. (2013): Технології та рекомендації до використання вживаної деревини в де-ревообробленні / Resursooshchadnі tekhnologії pereroblennya vzhivanoї derevini [Resource-saving technologies of recycling of post-consumer wood]. Scientific Bulletin of NULES of Ukraine: Tech-nology and Energy of agroindustrial complex 185(2):271-280, (in Ukrainian).

Hoffmann V. (1996): Zuordnungskriterien für Rest- und Altholz zur energetischen Verwer-tung oder thermischen Behandlung. In: R. Marutzky und W. Schmidt (Hrsg.): Alt- und Restholz: En-ergetische und stoffliche Verwertung, Beseitigung, Verfahrenstechnik, Logistik, VDI-Verlag, Düs-seldorf. 185-189.

Lesiv L.E. (2022) Дослідження характеристик комбінованих столярних плит із ВЖД / Doslidzhennya kharakterystyk kombinovanykh stolyarnykh plyt iz vzhyvanoyi derevyny [Study of the characteristics of combined of blockboards made of post-consumer wood]. Forestry, Forest, Paper and Woodworking Industry 48:69-86 (in Ukrainian). doi: https://doi.org/10.36930/42214806

Mantau, U., H. Weimar, L. Kuiper, and N. Leek. (2005): Final report (part1): Origin and Commercialization Structure of Post-Consumer Wood in Germany and the Netherlands. University of Hamburg and Probos Wageningen. 31.

Marutzky R. (1997): Qualitatsanforderungen und Entsorgungswege fur Rest-und Gebrauchtholzer. In: Alt- und Restholz - Energetische und stoffliche Verwertung, Beseitigung, Ver-fahrenstechnik, Logistik, VDI-Verlag, Düsseldorf. 114-118.

Moxn J. (2000): Emissionen und Stoffflusse von (Rest-) Holzfeuerungen / Das Projekt wurde von den folgenden Institutionen finanziert: BUWAL Schweiz. Vereinigung fur Holzenergie IG-Altholz Kantone (AG, BE, BS/BL, GE, TG, ZG, ZH) Anlagenbetreiber. - EMPA. Abteilung Luft-fremdstoffe / Umwelttechnik Bericht Nr. 880'002/1, 180.

Noger D., et al. (1996): Verwertung und Beseitigung von Holzaschen. Bern: Bundesamt für Umwelt, Wald und Landschaft (BUWAL). Schriftenreihe Umwelt Nr. 269.

Oniśko W., Dobrowolska E., Matejak M.: Opracowanie założeń klasyfikacji drewna poużytkowego według kierunków jego zużycia. Opracowanie OBRPPD nr 74.1379.3.98.

Ratajczak E., Szostak A., Bidzińska G. (2003): Drewno poużytkowe w Polsce, Instytut Technologii Drewna, 168.

Ratajczak E., Szostak A., Bidzinska G., Leszczyszyn E. (2018): Market in wood by-products in poland and their flows in the wood sector. Poznan : Drewno 61(202): 5-20.

Ratajczak E. (2013): Sektor leśno-drzewny w zielonej gospodarce. Wydawnictwo Instytutu Technologii Drewna, Poznań: 62-69.